In the public availability period (2002–2010), vaccine was publicly funded. The independent variables in the Poisson model included: linear trends within each time period (1994–1998, 1999–2001, 2002–2010), sex, age-group (<10 years, 10–44 years, 45–64 years, 65 years or older), co-morbidity status (any vs. none) and two-way interaction terms (age-group × sex, age-group × co-morbidity, Fluorouracil cell line time-period × age-group, time-period × sex, sex × co-morbidity). An alpha level of 0.05 was used to test for significance

of interaction terms. As the two-way interactions for co-morbidity  × age-group and for co-morbidity × sex were significant at 0.05, a three way interaction term (age-group × sex × co-morbidity) was added to the model. The goodness of fit statistic (deviance goodness of fit 1.6) indicated this was an appropriate model. C646 There was no difference between the pre-licensure and private availability period, so these periods were pooled for the final model without affecting model fit. In sensitivity analysis, we modelled only first episodes of shingles to determine the impact of modelling numbers of episodes rather than numbers of individual persons. Secular trends are described using

locally weighted scatter plot smoothing (LOESS) curves [13]. SAS 9.2 (SAS Institute Inc, Cary, NC) was used for all data manipulation and analysis, except the LOESS which was carried out using SigmaPlot 11.0 (Systat Software, San Jose, CA). The study was approved by the Conjoint Health Research Ethics Board of the University of Calgary

(E 23776, E17522). Fig. 1 shows that crude rates of medically attended shingles episodes increased over the interval 1994–2010. (-)-p-Bromotetramisole Oxalate The crude rate for 1994 was 3.5 per 1000 person-years. This increased to 3.8/1000 person-years in 1998, to 4.0/1000 person-years by 2001 and to 4.5/1000 person-years by 2010. Most patients (90%) had only a single episode of shingles; 8% had 2 episodes and 2% had more than 2 episodes (data not shown). As can be seen in Table 2, for the overall interval 1994–2010, 59% of medically attended shingles episodes (cases) occurred among females. Rates were higher among females than males over the entire interval, and increased more rapidly for females than males (Fig. 2). Less than 2% of shingles cases had one or more co-morbidities in the 12 months prior to shingles diagnosis and this proportion remained stable throughout all three periods studied (Table 2). A slightly higher proportion of female than male cases had a co-morbidity and this pattern was also stable over all three periods studied (data not shown). Only 4% of shingles cases were hospitalized over the interval 1994–2010; however this proportion declined over the 3 periods of varicella vaccine availability from 5.1% to 3.4% (Table 2).